Facts, Assumptions, and Unknowns: A Simple Decision-Making Framework

One of the easiest ways to make a difficult decision clearer is to stop treating every thought as though it has the same level of certainty.

Most decisions contain three different kinds of information:

Facts.

Assumptions.

Unknowns.

Mixing them together creates false confidence or unnecessary anxiety.

Facts

Facts are things you can reasonably verify.

Examples:

• The salary is $95,000.
• The house is 42 miles from work.
• The lease is 12 months.
• The program costs $8,000.

Facts give your decision a stable foundation.

Assumptions

Assumptions are beliefs that may be reasonable but have not been confirmed.

Examples:

• I will probably like the manager.
• The neighborhood seems quiet.
• I think customers will pay this price.
• I expect the commute to be manageable.

Assumptions are not bad. They simply deserve a different level of confidence.

Unknowns

Unknowns are questions you cannot currently answer.

Examples:

• What will insurance cost?
• Will the team be reorganized?
• How much repair work will the property need?
• Will demand remain strong?

Unknowns matter most when the answer could change your decision.

Use the framework

For each major factor, ask:

1. What do I know?
2. What am I assuming?
3. What do I still need to learn?
4. Would new information change my choice?

This simple process can turn a vague sense of uncertainty into a short list of specific questions.

See where your confidence comes from

Decidedly Sure helps you separate evidence from assumptions and identify the unknowns that deserve your attention.

Start with one complete decision free.